Derrick Henry, Mike Tomlin, what the heck was I thinking?

NFL Bold Predictions - Grades after Week 8

Derrick Henry, you are a freak of nature. How are you having one of your best seasons at age 30 when most running backs are retired or third stringers? Mike Tomlin, you need to change your name to Mike Midas, because you are continuing to turn lemons in lemonade no matter what obstacles are put in front of you.

Mr. Henry, Mr. Tomlin, I owe you an apology for even daring to doubt you! Hey, there’s a reason they’re called bold predictions ;) … and two predictions are still looking pretty good while another is on the bubble.

Now onto my official grades for my bold predictions after Week 8. Just a reminder, I’ll grade my predictions from A to D, where:

• A = I just might be a football oracle

• B = Trending in the right direction

• C = Trending in the wrong direction

• D = What was I thinking?

1. Derrick Henry will not surpass 800 yards:
D (prediction officially busted!)

This was already in the busted pile after just 7 weeks, as Henry had already rushed for over 800 yards by that point in the season.

I’m happy for Henry. A star who’s been stuck on a team that’s been mediocre at best most of his time at Tennessee is now not only on a Superbowl contender, but a key contributor. Perhaps the MVP for the team after Lamar Jackson. And it’s been watching defensive backs make business decisions when Henry is rumbling down the field towards them. Buffalo’s Taylor Rapp was one who didn’t make a business decision, threw himself at Henry’s 30-inch rock hard thighs, and got a concussion for his trouble.

Logically, it doesn’t really make a lot of sense that Baltimore would be playing Henry as much as they are. I think their 0-and-2 start scared them and they decided they can’t afford to try to keep Henry fresh for the playoffs, and the rest is history (as far as my prediction goes).

2. Dallas will miss the playoffs:
B+

After Dallas demolished Cleveland in Week 1, I had the least confidence in this prediction. Then we found out Cleveland is a terrible team, and Dallas went on to be blown out by the Saints and the Lions. Their only wins are against the Browns, Giants, and Steelers. The game against the Steelers is looking like the anomaly.

They made some valiant near-comebacks against the Ravens and 49ers which reflects the talent they have on offence, but they are a step behind the teams that truly have a chance to make the playoffs. Sorry Cowboys fans, I don’t see Micah’s return saving their season.

3. Sam Darnold will establish himself as a reliable starting quarterback:
B+

The Vikings have now lost two in a row, but Darnold has played well in both of those losses. So far, the only game where Darnold has not looked good was the game against the Jets (before Robert Salah was fired and the Jets defence started tanking). In every other game, including the two losses, Darnold’s quarterback rating has been above 100 (i.e., among the league leaders).

Early prediction for next year: The Raiders go after Darnold when the Vikings decide to go all in on J.J. McCarthy. Yes, I’m a Raiders fan, so maybe wishful thinking :)

4. The Buffalo Bills will win the AFC:
B-

The trade for Amari Cooper is a game changer. The Bills offence has bounced back nicely since their two-game slide, and much of that is thanks to adding Cooper and the return of Khalil Shakir from injury. The trickle down effect of Cooper gaining more attention from opposing defenses is exemplified by the increased production from their rookie receive Keon Coleman the last two games.

What I think is most promising for the Bills is they are playing sound football on both sides of the ball. The turnovers are way down on offence, and their defence has been consistent. They aren’t beating themselves as they did much of last year. The Bills look ready to compete with the best, and are improving as the season goes on.

Having said all that, the Ravens (despite their loss to the Browns) and the Chiefs look like the two best teams in the AFC, but picking them to win the AFC would have been as bold as predicting the cameras are going to pan over to Taylor Swift every time Kelce scores a touchdown.

5. Mike Tomlin will have his first losing season:
C-

This still had a chance until Russell Wilson decided to turn back the clock. In fairness to my initial prediction, I did say I expected the Steelers to be better than last year, but their schedule looked like a killer. Then the Browns and Bengals fell off a cliff this year. Suddenly their remaining schedule looks tough but manageable.

But most of all, the lesson learned is never doubt Tomlin! Not only does a winning season look like a sure thing, but the Steelers look like a team to fear in the playoffs. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if the Steelers end up being the unexpected winners of the AFC.