Forget the Talking Heads on TV, this is What Will Happen with Mitch Marner

"Frank Seravalli recently pegged the odds at only 5% that Marner is a Leaf in September. Frank, what you have you been smoking?"

First, apologies for yet another Marner story (the news is flooded right now with takes on Marner), but what’s out there is such nonsense. Here’s my take on why a trade won’t happen, and what will happen instead.

Why a Trade is Unrealistic and Just a Bad Idea

Frank Seravalli recently pegged the odds at only 5% that Marner is a Leaf in September. Frank, what you have you been smoking? Or maybe he figures at the end of the day, he’s only going to be right or wrong, so why not toss out a ridiculous prediction like that.

Look, I get it. The Leafs need to restructure their team. We’ve heard this before — you can’t be successful with over 50% of your salary on 4 forwards. There’s only one problem: Marner has a full no-move clause (NMC), something the pundits seem to keep ignoring when they toss out trade speculation. He was pretty clear at the end of the season he wants to stay. That could change, but don’t count on it.

The other part of this “let’s trade Mitch” talk that isn’t realistic is who’s going to ante up equal value? If we put aside the NMC, yes it would make sense to trade Marner for a #1 right-shot defenseman. You think New Jersey is trading Luke Hughes? Colorado trading Cale Makar?

So we set our sights lower. You think anyone in Edmonton was happy to get Adam Larsson in exchange for top scorer and future MVP Taylor Hall?

The far more likely scenario is Marner plays out the year, like he says he’s going to. There’s a new coach that gives the team real hope, the salary cap is going up, and Treliving has another year to reshape the team. You think Marner wants to leave just before the Leafs turn the corner?

Projected Lineup with Marner Still on the Team

The Leafs were in a transition period last year, and they will be again next year, until they get out from under the Tavares $11 million dollar cap hit. This isn’t the time to dump a star player. Yes, he has struggled in the playoffs. You still have to make the playoffs, and there’s a good chance that Berube’s North-South style will finally unlock Marner’s potential in the playoffs.

There’s also enough cap space to still make significant improvements to the team while keeping Marner.

Jason Bukala put together a fantastic article providing a realistic blueprint that keeps Marner on the team and fills key holes, including a #1 right-shot defenceman. Below is his example of a potential cap-compliant line-up. Not bad, eh?

What Will Happen (or At Least Should Happen)

Treliving absolutely should be exploring trade options for Marner. Maybe he gets lucky with a team desperate enough to ante up with a fair deal.

In the meantime, start negotiating the next Marner contract with a realistic top number that the Leafs can afford, taking into account Tavares will be off the books when Marner’s next contract kicks in. Then the ball is in Marner’s court. If he really loves it in Toronto and wants to say, he’s got an easy decision to make.

If he wants more money than the Leafs can offer, then the decision is again very easy for the Marner camp to waive the NMC. He’s not being pushed out; the Leafs just can’t afford another top-end contract.

My guess: Marner signs a bridge deal — maybe 2 or 3 years at a hometown discount of maybe $9.9 million.