Three Solutions to the Mitch Marner Saga No One Else is Talking About

The trade talk is buzzing, with the NHL draft in progress and free-agency just around the corner. But there’s one trade that won’t happen: Mitch Marner (to anyone).

Before I continue with what will happen, let’s revisit why a Mitch Marner trade won’t happen. To sum it up, there’s no way the Leafs get back equal value, and there’s no way Treliving wants to make another Matthew Tkachuk trade. For more on why a trade won’t happen, see my June 7 article (Forget the Talking Heads on TV, this is What Will Happen with Mitch Marner).

Next, let’s revisit why so many Leafs fans (right or wrong) want to run Marner out of town. Marner is a terrific player, but ever since he signed that monster $10.9 million dollar contract 5 years ago, the expectations rose and Marner couldn’t match those expectations (at least in the playoffs, which is all Leafs fans care about these days).

Let me be clear. I think Marner is a terrific player, and the Leafs’ playoff struggles don’t come down to one player (more on this in a later post). It’s a team game. However, when it comes to the Leafs’ challenges with offence in the playoffs, Marner has not fared well compared to Matthews and Nylander (see the images below). This also helps explain why Marner gets so much of the blame (again, right or wrong) compared to Matthews and Nylander.

You may have heard some hockey analysts state that Marner actually has a better points per game (PPG) in the playoffs than Matthews and Nylander. However, if you look at the last 4 years — i.e., since Marner signed his contract extension (excluding the 2020 COVID bubble year), he is behind Matthews and Nylander.

The picture is worse when you look at goals per game (GPG):

There’s a lot more to Marner’s game than offence, but this is why we are where we are with Marner (not to mention the desire for cap space to be applied elsewhere on the team).

So what will happen. Here are three more-likely possibilities no one else is talking about (or at least not until recently when others caught up with my thinking :) ).

1. Marner is moved to center. Why is no one else suggesting this possibility? The Leafs need to apply some of his cap space to beef up the second-line center role as Tavares continues to decline. Why not solve that problem and the Marner dilemma with one action — literally and directly apply his cap space to the 2C role with a position switch.
   
   Marner has been able to fill in on Defence periodically, so why is this idea so ridiculous? Marner is defensively responsible, a great skater, and a great passer. Sounds like the makings of an all-star center.
   
   A move to center would also encourage a more north-south game, which I think will help him tremendously in the playoffs when his East-West game of patience and trying to thread cross-ice passes just doesn’t work consistently when the opposition defence tightens up.
   

2. Marner plays out the season. The sports media have finally come around to this way of thinking, although more because they think the Leafs won’t have a choice whereas I think the Leafs value Marner and want to keep him unless a team blows them away with a great trade offer (won’t happen; see my linked article above).
   
   So the Leafs take their time on a decision, see how Marner and the team performs next summer, and then make a decision.
   
   Yes, the risk is they let him walk for nothing… but I expect they’ll still be able to pull off a trade before free-agency next year by using the only leverage they will have at that point (and really the only trade leverage they have today too): the ability to sign him to an 8-year contract (i.e., more security and money) as part of a sign-and-trade to his preferred team. If he goes to free agency, he can only sign a 7-year deal.
   
   The trade wouldn’t be for equal value, but it wouldn’t be for equal value today either. So get at least another year out of Marner and see what happens in the playoffs with a different coach and system.
   

3. Marner signs a bridge deal after the 2025 playoffs. In the linked article I suggested a home-town discount deal of maybe $9.9 million. That might be wishful thinking, but even a 3-year deal for the same as Nylander’s $11.5 million is a reasonable compromise between what Marner can get on the open market and the wishful-thinking home-town discount. This gives Marner one more chance to cash in after 3 years (at which point a higher cap might allow the pay-day he and his agent might think he deserves) while giving the Leafs flexibility to re-tool if necessary after a few years.
   

Let me know what you think. We’ll see how this plays out and revisit the accuracy of my crystal ball :).